According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Halving Supply Shock Model BAERM estimates BTC’s exchange rate by regressing today’s price on yesterday’s price and the current halving epoch using ordinary least squares, and the market is now in Epoch 5, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the model indicates a current fair value of $159,000 versus a reported market price of $109,000, implying material upside versus model value, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, BAERM’s forecasts show $173,000 for end-2025 and $7.59 million over 10 years, while projecting diminishing returns as halving effects fade, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, institutional demand from global Bitcoin ETPs and treasury buyers outweighed the 2024 halving deficit by nearly 6 times, challenging the model’s diminishing-returns assumption and elevating demand-side drivers for BTC, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the model shows strong out-of-sample fit around 88% R^2 since the second halving but may suffer omitted variable bias because halving years coincide with US business cycle troughs in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the model is somewhat outdated as it omits the growing impact of ETP flows, treasury purchases, and potential S-curve adoption, so traders should weigh halving-based fair value signals against demand flow metrics when assessing BTC valuation, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 26, 2025 x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1971612567576449228.